Coronavirus Will Kill 20 Million Or More
There is a significant possibility that the coronavirus, COVID-19, will kill 20 million persons or more before it runs its course. On an individual basis this is not a huge risk, and it's not an existential risk to civilization, but we have reason to be alarmed.
There is evidence that the case-fatality rate for COVID-19 disease is higher than 2.5%. The Chinese doctor who blew the whistle on the virus is dead. Also dead is the head of the hospital.
>>Li Wenliang contracted the virus while working at Wuhan Central Hospital.<< 7 Feb 2020
www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-china-51403795
>>Liu Zhiming, director of the Wuchang hospital in Wuhan, died from the novel coronavirus on Tuesday morning,<< 18 Feb 2020
https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-18-20-intl-hnk/h_043a6d18048e2732faa845742f658a2b
Asume that the case-fatality rate is 2.5%. Then the probability of a randomly-infected individual dying is point .025. The probability of two randomly-infected patients both dying is .025 X .025 or 0.000625, one chance out of 1600. This is a very low probability.
Of course these two doctors at the epicenter of the epidemic were not randomly infected. It is reasonable to assume that they were strongly exposed to the coronavirus. On the other hand they were healthy, relatively-young individuals. Liu Zhiming was 51 when he died. Li Wenliang was only 33. Furthermore we can assume that they received the best treatment available. From this point of view we might conclude that a strong exposure to COVID-19 will kill even a healthy adult.
This is anecdotal evidence that the COVID-19 has a higher case-fatality rate than publicly discussed.
As of March 2nd 48,705 COVID-19 cases have had an outcome. 45,636 (94%) have recovered or been discharged. 3,069 (6%) have resulted in death. That is considerably higher than 2.5%. On the other hand there could be many infected persons who never felt sick enough to go to a doctor. That would make the case-fatality rate lower.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Update: The death tally now stands at 3219 on 4 Mar 20. 150 deaths higher than two days ago, a rate of 75 deaths per day. This worldwide rate is comparable to the rate of fatalities from flu in the US.
Now consider the virality: the number of persons who will be infected by one sick individual. Influenza in the US is assumed to have a virality between 1 and 2. Flu has a case-fatality rate of point one percent. One-tenth of one percent of infected individuals will die of the flu on average, one patient out of 1000. Since many persons with the flu are not terribly sick and continue to go about their business, it spreads rapidly in the population.
So far this flu season there have been between 29 million and 41 million cases of flu in the US. Approximately ten percent of the US population has been infected.
The virality of the coronavirus is thought to be higher than influenza. And like flu many individuals have only mild symptoms so they continue to spread the disease. On the other hand society is attempting to quarantine infected individuals which will reduce the virality and slow the spread.
Let's assume that on balance COVID-19 spreads similarly to flu and, like flu, becomes a pandemic.
Ten percent of the world population is roughly 800 million persons, the possible number of infections with COVID-19.
A 2.5% mortality rate for COVID-19 could mean 20 million deaths worldwide. A 5% rate could mean 40 million deaths.
Here is a new estimate from a virus expert: up to 70 percent of the world's population will get COVID-19 with a case-fatality rate of 1%. In this case as many as 54 million persons die (my calculation).
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-infection-outbreak-worldwide-virus-expert-warning-today-2020-03-02/
So, bottom-line, we can expect between 20 and 54 million deaths worldwide.
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“Why The Coronavirus Mortality Rate is Misleading” by Charit Narayanan
https://link.medium.com/msCqozhNo4
The Atlantic: You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bad-coronavirus-let-run-numbers-133021768.html
Dr. Richard Hatchett: 60-70% of world’s population could become infected with coronavirus.
https://www.msnbc.com/on-assignment/watch/dr-richard-hatchett-60-70-of-world-s-population-could-become-infected-with-coronavirus-80359493912
