Apocalypse Never (My Utopian Vision)

11 min readOct 24, 2020

by Peter Rodes Robinson

[Updated 15 Jan 2021]

[Links added 14 Feb 2021]

Michael Shellenberger makes this point about global warming:

But it’s not the case that “we’re putting our own survival in danger” through extinctions, as Elizabeth Kolbert claimed in her book, Sixth Extinction. As tragic as animal extinctions are, they do not threaten human civilization. If we want to save endangered species, we need to do so because we care about wildlife for spiritual, ethical, or aesthetic reasons, not survival ones.

The author is correct and I have made the same point before. Global warming is a huge risk for animal life that evolved to live in cooler places and doesn’t have air conditioning and transportation and other ways to deal with a suddenly hotter climate. Human beings do have technology, and, besides, we evolved in Africa, a very hot place, where we lived for over a hundred thousand years.

In Africa the average annual temperature is 25.7 °C. The average surface temperature on Earth is approximately 14°C. According to climate scientists, our world is highly likely to continue to warm over this century and beyond. This conclusion is based on scientists’ understanding of how the climate system works and on computer models designed to simulate Earth’s climate. Results from a wide range of climate model simulations suggest that our planet’s average temperature could be between 2 and 9.7°F (1.1 to 5.4°C) warmer in 2100 than it is today.

Take the extreme number (5.4°C) and double it for 2200 (11°C): the Earth’s climate would be equivalent to Africa’s now. This is the worst case scenario for global warming. In two hundred years living on Earth could be like living in Africa is now. Admittedly this could mean that large areas of Africa would be uninhabitable causing huge population migrations. The most serious threat to our environment from global warming is rapid acidification of our oceans. This should not kill the planet, however. CO2 levels have been much higher in the past.

Very likely the Earth will never experience these extremes because we will resort to geoengineering such as injection of sulfate aerosols or calcium carbonate (chalk) into the upper atmosphere while we steadily reduce human population. Reforestation is one of the most effective methods of removing carbon from the atmosphere while offering immense benefits to the environment and nature. Bamboo shows great promise.

Projecting massive loss of human life or the loss of human civilization is "calling wolf" with pseudoscience. It will only alarm people a certain number of times. I am not suggesting that we humans should be complacent. The challenge is to be accurate.

For tens of thousands of years human life spans have been getting longer. Now in the face of this fact, some persons believe they know that this trend will turn around and EVERYONE WILL DIE within 10, 20, 30, or 50 years. For example: Nature Bats Last. When you are predicting that the observed trend will change, you must have rock-solid evidence, not speculation. There is no published peer-reviewed research that predicts a catastrophe for humans.

While I am confident that humans in general will survive the next two centuries, I’m not so optimistic about other species. Every extinction of a species is tragic; hundreds and thousands of extinctions would be catastrophic. We humans are the guilty ones and we should hang our heads in shame. More importantly we should do everything we can to protect other species (including saving their DNA as a last resort). Protection is actually possible. There is wonderful news for Loggerhead turtles in South Carolina. Due to the concerted efforts of hundreds of volunteers about 525,500 turtles emerged from 8,857 nests in 2017 compared to 2016 when 396,441 turtles emerged from 6,446 nests.

For the sake of the animals and the poorest humans, we would be smart to tax fossil fuels and prioritize carbon-free technologies. Even so, things may get rough during this century and the next. But the earth will survive and humans will survive. There are many beneficial changes coming.

Social Structures

Social innovations such as Universal Health Care and Universal Basic Income will improve health, reduce economic inequality, alleviate job loss, and eliminate much misery. The double-edged sword of automation will continue to make excellent stuff much cheaper and more widely available even for poor people while UBI will change technological unemployment from a curse to a blessing.

Universal National Service for young people will re-bond our fractured nations and vet our leaders. Offering advanced education to all girls and women will increase equity and reduce unwanted pregnancies.

To grasp the big picture visualize these eight universal systems.

Some of these are modern ideas and some are centuries old. They are “universal” in the sense that they apply to all or almost all members of society generally without charge. Together they will transform society.

Negative Population Growth

Fertility rates are dropping everywhere in the world. Population growth in the last decade of the United States was the lowest since the 1930s, and this was before most of the effects of the pandemic.

Cheap, effective, long-term contraception will accelerate this trend. World population should peak before the end of this century at between nine and ten billion.

But we can do much better than this. Almost all of the projected population growth will occur in one area: Africa. When you read these articles it seems like this growth is a given, an unalterable natural phenomenon similar to continental drift. But of course we can change this. Imagine the effect of offering every woman in Africa a permanent income if they have their tubes tied or blocked in a free operation. For instance $100US per month if the operation occurs after no births or the birth of one child. $50 per month after two children. $25 per month if more than two. This could halt population growth in Africa after a few decades. On the average woman of child-bearing age constitute about 25% of the population. In Africa this means about 300 million women many of whom already have more than two children. Assuming an average payout of $50 per month per woman, the cost would be 180 billion dollars per year. $180 billion to save the earth.

After the human population on Earth begins to shrink, an average fertility of 1.4 births per woman would mean the population declines about 1% per year before stabilizing at about 1 billion by the year 2300.

Population growth can occur in space. On Earth with much fewer humans other species will rebound and flourish. Preserved genetic material will enable extinct species to be re-established. Our descendants on Earth will live in a paradise restored while our space-faring descendants will have a choice of many mini-Earths (space habitats) featuring varied and fascinating environments. On the space front we should briefly mention the possibility of asteroid mining and space elevators.

Increasing Human Lifespans

Average lifespans are increasing meaning leaders will be wiser and less aggressive in general and the youth (cannon fodder) will be a much smaller percentage of the total population. Greatly increased participation of women in governments and companies will reinforce this trend. (See Finland, Iceland, and New Zealand for example.)

All-out war between advanced nations is already history. Not going to happen anymore. This trend has already saved tens of millions of lives and will ultimately reduce wasted investment in military machines.

Renewable and Carbon-free Power

Within a few years, electrical power produced from solar cells and wind turbines will be cheaper than electrical power produced from coal. (Already true in some areas.) Europe is commited to converting to renewables.

Transparent solar cells are on the way. Sun-facing windows and skylights in every building could be producing electricity. Since most architects strive to reduce glare and heat gain through windows this is a win-win. Meanwhile the cost of wind energy continues to decline. The latest GE wind turbine is two-thirds the height of the Empire State building.

Soon a new generation of small modular factory-built nuclear-power plants will arrive producing inexpensive carbon-free electricity. In the longer run we will crack the puzzle of fusion power.

Harvesting methane hydrates (methane ice) could be another win-win in the energy world. Methane is one of best of the fossil fuels since it is mostly hydrogen (CH4) with few impurities. It’s a very versatile and familiar source of energy which we will be using for a long time. Furthermore large deposits of methane hydrates in the sea bed are potential planet killers. If rising temperatures caused them to melt and release their methane, it could cause a world-wide extinction. So using up most of the methane hydrate in the world would be a good thing. Though there are many unanswered questions about mining this energy source, it certainly has interesting potential.

Future Transportation

The Covid-19 pandemic has greatly accelerated the trend toward telecommuting or “WFH” (work from home). Motorized commuting to jobs will greatly diminish since intellectual jobs can be done in or closer to home. The author believes that (when the pandemic ends) generic workspaces within walking distance of home could provide superior connectivity plus separation from the home environment. A break room could offer conviviality with other telecommuting workers. When commuting is necessary, there will be many new options.

Bicycling and walking to work will produce a healthier population and greatly reduce air pollution. Elevated and enclosed bikeways in cities will enable safe, fast, and healthy travel even for those using electric wheel-chairs. Every building with an elevator could be connected to the bikeway with a skybridge at the second or third floor level. Bikeways should be dotted with rental e-bikes so you don’t need to have your own bike with you.

GM just announced that they will produce only electric vehicles after 2035. The steadily falling cost of batteries will support this trend. Within 30 years self-driving electric cars and trucks will radically reduce fuel consumption and pollution in advanced nations. Traffic lights and traffic jams will vanish in cities along with accidents and parking hassles while on the highways platoons of closely-spaced cars and trucks will cut air resistance and noise and increase mileage.

Driverless vans can provide public transportation acceptable to stuck-up Americans. In urban environments every mile there would be a small weather-protected station. Imagine. You walk in, provide your fingerprint or voice print, and indicate your destination. Within minutes a driverless van stops for you and takes you to your destination picking up and discharging other riders along the way. You never have to change vans. You are dropped off at a station close to your destination. Your travel may be free or your account may be charged a modest amount. Of course the particular van that stops for you would be the one going in your general direction.

Within this century evacuated-tube transport or hyperloop will revolutionize travel from a few miles to a few hundred miles making it silent, inconspicuous, and amazingly efficient since almost all of the energy required to gain speed or altitude can be recovered from regenerative braking. Ultimately such swift and silent transportation will reverse the trend towards urbanization replacing urban sprawl with networks of walkable bucolic towns. In the author’s opinion hyperloop networks should compete primarily with interstates not airplanes. They should have a fast lane, a slow lane, and exit ramps every few miles. Pods must be able to change lanes and make brief stops. You should be able to commute to work or go across town in a hyperloop pod.

In the air a new generation of hybrid electric-solar airships may provide long-distance travel which is ecological as well as silent, stately, elegant, and healthy. By piggybacking on prevailing winds fuel consumption could be radically reduced. It may take a few days to arrive at your overseas destination but you would be fully linked-in and physically and socially active during that time arriving rested, refreshed, and adjusted to a new time zone. Of course the view from the observation deck would be incredible. Getting there will be fun again. Actual airships are still in the design phase. Until we can look up at working airships skepticism is warranted.

Reinventing Education

Modern technologies offer the possibility of completely redesigning how education happens. The pandemic demands that we do this. The cost of education will fall as the best lectures in the world will be available on the Web. With inside-out schools great lectures and fascinating documentaries can be viewed wherever and whenever students desire, while classroom time (including telelinked students) can be devoted to discussion.

Elaborate video simulations will illuminate complex subjects. Lab work and hands-on skills can be practiced in satellite locations. But if we truly desire superior education for all, we will need to ban private schools.

Advanced Medicine

The extraordinary speed of development of very effective vaccines for the coronavirus harkens a new day in vaccine production.

Automated diagnostic stations (see lab on a chip) tended by technicians can be placed in every town or remote area with the results sent to state-of-the-art medical centers. Prescriptions and advice can be provided immediately eliminating the need for the patient to travel. Medicines can be automatically delivered to the home or the station. Medics and “barefoot doctors” can deliver low-cost patient care with backup from experts at the medical center.

Biotechnologies such as genome editing and gene therapy will revolutionize medicine and other fields repairing many disabilities and preserving human skills and energy and extending lifespans.

Custom organ replacement will be revolutionary. Organs will be cultured from a patient’s own cells so that there is no danger of rejection. Imagine being told that you will need a new heart soon, so one is started growing. Even if it takes a few months to grow, it will be ready in plenty of time. Currently these lab procedures are painstaking and labor intensive, but there is no reason this could not be automated. Major organ replacement in humans is still years away but research is on-going.

Bacteriophages (“germ-eating” viruses) can eliminate harmful bacteria from a body more effectively than antibiotics. It is an old idea that is gaining new attention.

Artificial Intelligence

AI is more feared than loved, but the pros greatly outweigh the cons. Speech recognition by Siri and Alexa is already ubiquitous though hardly perfect. Google voice-to-text is at least superior to thumbing words on a smart phone. The ability of AI-powered apps to place dog ears and noses on children’s selfies seems to be quite advanced. We have probably seen only a tiny fraction of what ever-faster computers, neural networks, and deep learning can accomplish.

Internet and Smart Phones

This has already disrupted our lives so thoroughly that it is hard to summarize. More to say later. 5G.

Advanced Materials

A place holder.

Virtual Reality

Another place holder.

Conclusion

These are some positive trends; there are other darker trends. The fact that everyone is staring at their screens rather than talking to the people around them is certainly alarming. Many current social and political events around the world are not encouraging. [Update in January 2021: the political reality in the United States is changing rapidly for the better.] In the longer run most people’s lives will greatly improve while declining human population will protect and preserve the natural world.

Don’t worry, be happy, stay busy, and look forward.

Written by Peter Rodes Robinson