Apocalypse Never (My Utopian Vision)
Forbes: Why Apocalyptic Claims About Climate Change Are Wrong.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/11/25/why-everything-they-say-about-climate-change-is-wrong/
The author makes this point:
>>But it’s not the case that “we’re putting our own survival in danger” through extinctions, as Elizabeth Kolbert claimed in her book, Sixth Extinction. As tragic as animal extinctions are, they do not threaten human civilization. If we want to save endangered species, we need to do so because we care about wildlife for spiritual, ethical, or aesthetic reasons, not survival ones.<<
The author is correct and I have made the same point before. Global warming is a huge risk for animal life that evolved to live in cooler places and doesn't have air conditioning and other ways to deal with a suddenly hotter climate. Human beings do have technology, and, besides, we evolved in Africa which is a very hot place where we lived for hundreds of thousands of years before we invented science.
>> In Africa the average annual temperature is 25.7 °C. <<
https://en.climate-data.org/north-america/panama/bocas-del-toro/africa-874631/
>> The average surface temperature on Earth is approximately 14°C <<
https://www.universetoday.com/55043/earths-temperature/
>> According to climate scientists, our world is highly likely to continue to warm over this century and beyond. This conclusion is based on scientists’ understanding of how the climate system works and on computer models designed to simulate Earth’s climate. Results from a wide range of climate model simulations suggest that our planet’s average temperature could be between 2 and 9.7°F (1.1 to 5.4°C) warmer in 2100 than it is today. <<
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature-projections
Take the extreme number (5.4°C) and double it for 2200 (11°C): the Earth's climate would be equivalent to Africa now.
This is the worst case scenario for global warming. In two hundred years living on Earth could be like living in Africa is now. [I’m glossing over things like ocean acidification that could be big problems. We need to take global warming seriously and do everything we can to stop it.]
Projecting massive loss of human life or the loss of human civilization is "calling wolf" with pseudoscience. It will only alarm people a few times.
For tens of thousands of years human life spans have been getting longer. Now in the face of this fact, some persons believe they know with certainty that this trend will turn around and EVERYONE WILL DIE within 10, 20, 30, or 50 years. (Example: http://guymcpherson.com/)
When you are predicting that the observed trend will change, you must have rock-solid evidence, not speculation. There is no published peer-reviewed research that predicts a catastrophe for humans.
While I am confident that humans in general will survive the next two centuries, I'm not so optimistic about other species. Every extinction of a species is tragic; hundreds and thousands of extinctions is catastrophic. We humans are the guilty ones and we should hang our heads in shame. More importantly we should do everything we can to protect other species. This is actually possible. There is wonderful news for Loggerhead turtles in South Carolina this year due to the concerted efforts of hundreds of volunteers.
>>[According to] the state Natural Resources Department counts about 525,500 turtles emerged from 8,857 nests. For comparison, the previous record nesting year, 2016, had 396,441 eggs emerge from 6,446 nests.<<
https://www.southernliving.com/news/south-carolina-loggerhead-sea-turtles-2019
For the sake of the animals and the poorest humans, we would be smart to tax the hell out of fossil fuels and prioritize carbon-free technologies and CCS. Even so, things may get rough during this century and the next.
BUT THE EARTH WILL SURVIVE AND HUMANS WILL SURVIVE.
There are many beneficial changes coming soon.
* Fertility rates are dropping everywhere in the world. Cheap, effective, long-term contraception will accelerate this trend. World population should peak before the end of this century at around ten billion. After that human population on Earth should shrink about 1% per year before stabilizing at about 1 billion by the year 2300.
* Population growth can occur in space. On Earth other species will rebound and flourish. Preserved genetic material will enable extinct species to be re-established. Our descendents on Earth will live in a paradise restored while our space-faring descendents will have a choice of many mini-Earths (space habitats) featuring the best conceivable environments.
* Average lifespans are increasing meaning leaders will be wiser and less aggressive in general and the youth (cannon fodder) will be a much smaller percentage of the total population. Greatly increased participation of women in governments and companies will reinforce this trend. (See Finland)
* War between advanced nations is already history. Not going to happen anymore. This trend has already saved tens of millions of lives and will ultimately reduce wasted investment in military machines.
* Social innovations such as Universal Healthcare and Universal Basic Income will reduce inequality of income and eliminate much misery. Universal National Service for young people will rebond our fractured nations and vet our future leaders.
* Within a few years, electrical power produced from sunshine and wind turbines will be cheaper than electrical power produced from coal. (Already true in some areas.) Within five years a new generation of small modular factory-built nuclear power plants will be deployed.
https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/infrastructure/a30225278/tiny-nuclear-reactor/
* Within 30 years motorised commuting to jobs will greatly diminish because intellectual jobs can be done by telecommuting and virtual meetings and physical jobs will be done closer to home. Bicycling and walking to work will facilitate a healthier population.
* Within 40 years self-driving electric cars and trucks will radically reduce fuel consumption in advanced nations. Traffic jams and traffic lights will vanish in cities along with accidents and parking hassles while on the highways platoons of closely-spaced vehicles will cut air resistance and noise significantly. Elevated and enclosed bikeways in cities will enable safe, fast, and healthy travel.
* Within 100 years evacuated-tube transport (hyperloop) will revolutionize travel of a few hundred miles making it silent, inconspicuous, and amazingly efficient since almost all of the energy required to gain speed or altitude can be recovered from regenerative braking. Swift and silent transportation will reverse the trend towards urbanization.
* In the air a new generation of hybrid airships will provide long-distance travel which is ecological as well as stately, elegant, and healthy. By piggybacking on prevailing winds fuel consumption can be radically reduced. It may take a few days to arrive at your overseas destination but you will be fully linked-in and physically and socially active during that time arriving rested, refreshed, and adjusted to a new time zone. Getting there will be fun again.
* The cost of education will plummet as the best lectures in the world will be available on the Web. Lectures will be viewed wherever and whenever students desire, while classroom time (including telelinked students) will be devoted to discussion. Lab work and hands-on skills can be practiced in satellite locations.
* Biotechnologies such as genome editing and gene therapy will revolutionize medicine and other fields repairing many disabilities and preserving human skills and energy.
These are some positive trends; there are other darker trends. But on the balance and in the longer run most people's lives will improve while steadily-reduced human population will protect and preserve the natural world.
Note that current social and political trends in the United States are not encouraging, but the US is the exception. If the world leads while the US follows, we can still get there.
Don't worry, be happy, and get to work.
